북한이 2015년 5월 9일 '잠수함 발사 탄도미사일'의 시험 발사에 성공했다고 주장했다.
북한의 관영매체의 발표 내용이 매우 간단하여
신빙성과 정확한 상황을 파악하기에는 이른감이 있다.
함께 보도된 사진을 보면 수면(水面) 위로 솟아오른 SLBM은 확인이 되나,
이후 이 SLBMdl 정상궤도로 비행했는지?
비행거리는 얼마나 되는지?
목표물에 탄착을 했는지 여부와
원형공산오차(CEP, Circular Error Probability)는 얼마나 되는지 알려진 바가 전혀 없다.
▲ 북한의 조선중앙통신이 보도한 관련사진 - 연합뉴스. 2015.5.9
따라서 북한의 주장의 사실여부와 관련된 정보의 신빙성 검토와
대한민구의 안보에 대한 위협강도를 정확하게 파악하기에는 시일이 걸릴 것으로 예상된다.
우선 몇가지 논의할 사항이 있다.
첫째, 대한민국 안보라인의 대북인식과 정보분석 및 대응 문제이다.
북한이 SLBM의 개발과 신형잠수함을 개발 중이라는 보도는 2014년 12월부터 지속적으로 제기되어 왔다.
미국의 '38North', 'Washinton Freebeacon' 등은 위성사진 분석을 통해서,
탈북단체인 '북한인민해방전선'은 북한 내부 문건의 분석을 통해서 이 문제에 대해 지속적인 경고를 해왔다.
이에 대해 대한민국 안보라인(청와대 안보실-국방부-합참)은
'확인되지 않은 사항', '북한의 기술력으로는 성공을 하기 어렵다' 등으로 언론에 대응해 왔다.
결과적으로 민간인과 민간단체의 분석이 국가안보 및 국가정보기관의 분석보다 더 정확했다는 결과이다.
이 문제는
대한민국의 국가안보를 책임지고 있는 청와대 안보실-국방부-합참이라는 안보라인의
대북인식과 능력에 심각한 결점이 있을 수 있음을 시사하는 대목이다.
둘째, 현재 진행되고 있는 '킬체인(KAMD)'가 무용지물이 된다.
북한이 SLBM의 개발이 성공했다면,
천문학적인 예산을 집행해가며 개발하고 있는 '킬체인(KAMD)'은 아무런 쓸모가 없는 것이 된다.
'현재 개발 중인 '킬체인(KAMD)'은 SLBM을 요격할 수 없기 때문이다.
김대중 정부 이후 북한이 SLBM의 개발과 성공을 예측하지 못하고
국가안보문제를 정치외교적 관점에서 개념계획을 수립하여 개발을 시작한
'킬체인(KAMD)'의 개념계획과 현재까지 진행된 실적은 모두 혈세(血稅)의 낭비가 된 것이다.
'킬체인(KAMD)'의 기획단계 초기부터 지적된 문제를 무시하고 강행한 지난 정부의 관련자들의 책임이 무겁다.
군사전략적인 SLBM의 가치는
"핵탄두 탑재 잠수함 발사 탄도미사일 보유는 적국의 선제타격에 살아남아서 제2공격의 효과성을 보장하고
보유 핵무기의 생존성을 증가시켜 확실한 핵 보복력을 확보하는 것"이다.
위의 개념을 현실에 적용하면
기존의 한·미동맹 관계에서 정립된 '대북 핵 억제력의 약화'가 발생하는 것이다.
따라서 북한의 이러한 군사적 전략을 무력화하기 위해서는 '핵추진 잠수함'을 시급하게 확보해야 한다.
군사적으로 SLBM을 탑재한 잠수함을 제압할 무기쳬계는 잠수함이 유일하다.
작전능력이 떨어지는 재래식 잠수함으로는 SLBM을 탑재한 잠수함을 제압할 수 없다.
따라서 대한민국은 지금 당장 '핵추진 잠수함'의 획득을 추진해야 한다.
정부는 현재 진행중인 '킬체인(KAMD)'의 개발 계획에 '핵추진 잠수함'의 획득을 추가하거나,
'킬체인(KAMD)' 전체를 백지화하고 우리도 북한에 상응하는 '전략무기 개발'로 방향을 선회해야 한다.
'수세적이며 방어적 무기체계' 개발에 수 십조원을 사용할 것이 아니라
동급의 보복타격이 가능한 '공격 무기체계'의 개발로 국방정책의 방향을 수정해야 한다.
셋째, 북한의 SLBM개발로 국제사회는 북한을 '핵보유국'으로 인정할 가능성이 매우 높다.
지난 2015년 2월, 통일연구원이 발표한
'북한의 핵전략과 한국의 대응전략'이란 논문에서
"만일 잠수함 발사 탄도미사일을 이용한 공해상 핵실험에 성공하게 되면
북 한은 국제사회로부터 사실상의 핵보유국 지위를 인정받을 가능성이 크다"고 했다.
특히 미국이 실질적으로 북한을 '핵보유국'으로 인정할 경우,
대한민국과 미국과의 기존 동맹관계와 역학관계에 지작변동이 발생한다.
미국의 대북정책이 수정될 것이고 이는 미국의 대한반도 정책의 수정을 의미한다.
따라서 대한민국의 외교안보정책 전반에 대한 전략의 변화가 강요되는 상황이 발생하게 된다.
대한민국의 현안보라인은 미국의 대북 외교/군사 정책의 변화가 몰고 올 대한민국과 동북아시아 지역의 안보정세 변화에 대한 'B Plan'을 가지고 있기나 한 지 궁금하다.
Pentagon: KN-11 missile test fired from floating platform
North Korea conducted the first flight test of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile last month, defense officials said this week.
The flight test of what the Pentagon is calling the KN-11 missile took place Jan. 23 off the coast of North Korea from a sea-based platform—not a submarine—located off the coast of the communist state, said officials familiar with reports of the flight test.
U.S. intelligence ships and aircraft monitored the test and tracked the successful missile firing.
Additional details of the flight test could not be learned. A Pentagon spokesman declined to comment on the test, citing the sensitivity of information about North Korea’s SLBM program.
The flight test followed a land-based ejection test of the KN-11 in November from a static launcher located at the North’s Sinpo South Shipyard in November. Sinpo is a port city on North Korea’s southeastern coast about 100 miles from the Demilitarized Zone separating North Korea from rival South Korea.
The flight test is being viewed by U.S. intelligence analysts as a significant step forward for Pyongyang’s submarine-launched ballistic missile program. The new program was first disclosed by the Washington Free Beacon Aug. 26.
Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent R. Stewart, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told the House Armed Services Committee Feb. 3 that North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs “pose a serious threat to the U.S. and regional allies.”
“Pyongyang maintains that nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities are essential to ensure its sovereignty,” Stewart said in a prepared statement.
“Because of its conventional military deficiencies, the DPRK [North Korea] also has concentrated on improving its deterrence capabilities, especially its nuclear technology and ballistic missile forces.”
Stewart added that DIA is concerned North Korea will conduct a fourth underground nuclear test in the future.
The DIA director’s testimony made no mention of the SLBM program. But he said: “Pyongyang also is making efforts to expand and modernize its deployed missile forces consisting of close-, short-, medium-, and intermediate-range systems.”
“It seeks to develop longer-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons to the United States and continues efforts to bring its KN-08 road-mobile ICBM to operational capacity.
Other analysts assess the SLBM missile will be developed as a nuclear delivery system for Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal. A submarine-launched nuclear missile would add a more-difficult target to U.S. regional deterrence and missile defenses.
Since the SLBM program was disclosed last year, South Korea’s government has confirmed the program.
Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the use of a floating launch platform indicates the KN-11 could be launched from a military or commercial ship as well as from a submarine.
Platform test launches also indicate that the weapon is in an early stage of development and is not ready to be launched from a submerged submarine.
“For Pyongyang, using the KN-11 from ships as well as submarines rapidly increases the number of potential launch platforms, as it also complicates U.S. and allied efforts to monitor a new North Korean missile threat,” Fisher said.
“Firing the KN-11 from a floating platform is still useful, as it would go far to help verify whether the missile’s guidance system is able to compensate very quickly for wave motion in order to achieve the desired trajectory for the greatest accuracy.”
As for why Pyongyang is building the underwater missile, Fisher said: “The advent of the KN-11 offers North Korea the means to launch missile strikes against U.S. forces in Japan or against South Korea and Japanese targets, from multiple directions, from land bases, and from the sea.”
Fisher said in response to the missile that the Pentagon should urgently build up additional missile defenses and revive U.S. sea-based tactical nuclear arms in the region to bolster deterrence.
The Pentagon’s retirement of submarine-launched Tomahawk missile in 2010 was a “major mistake,” he said.
Bruce E. Bechtol, a North Korea specialist, said the major threat from any North Korean ballistic missile is whether the weapon is mobile—thus more difficult to target—and whether it can hit U.S. cities and carry a nuclear warhead.
U.S. intelligence agencies suspect North Korea in 2013 had developed a small nuclear warhead for delivery on long-range missiles after its third nuclear test.
“The North Koreans appear to be moving toward at least two of the three key parts of the threat a missile could pose to the United States,” said Bechtol, a former Defense Intelligence Agency official currently at Angelo State University.
“If and when they are able to launch the SLBM from a submarine, it means a platform that is mobile enough that it would likely be difficult for U.S. missile defenses to track,” he said. “The fact that the submarine could move to within just a few miles of American coastlines such as Alaska, Hawaii, or the west coast of the United States, means they could meet the second part of the missile threat to the U.S.”
North Korea probably obtained small nuclear warhead know-how from the Pakistani nuclear supplier group headed by A.Q. Khan.
“The fact that the North Koreans have test-launched this missile—even though it was not from a submarine—means that the DPRK is advancing their SLBM program,” Bechtol said. “This is a threat—a direct threat—to the United States that should be taken seriously if it comes to fruition.”
A U.S. think tank, 38 North, last year revealed satellite photos of the Sinpo development site that included a land-based missile test stand and a Soviet-era submarine capable of launching missile from its conning tower.
On Jan. 8, 38 North revealed additional satellite photos showing what it calls the Sinpo-class missile submarine with one or two missile launch tubes.
“In addition, imagery over the past six months indicates that North Korea has been upgrading facilities at the Sinpo South Shipyard in preparation for a significant naval construction program, possibly related to submarine development,” 38 North stated in an article written by North Korea expert Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.
“The presence of vertical launch tubes, if confirmed by additional evidence, would signal a significant advance in North Korean naval construction capabilities and could represent an embryonic step towards expanding Pyongyang’s missile threat to South Korea, Japan and U.S. bases in East Asia,” Bermudez wrote.
“It would also complicate regional missile defense planning, deployment, and operations,” he added. “North Korean missile-carrying submarines could be challenging to locate and track, would be mobile assets with the capability to attack from any direction, and would be able to operate at significant distances from the Korean peninsula.”
North Korea obtained from Russia SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missiles several years ago. The missile was adapted to North Korea’s Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile.
North Korea also has six KN-08 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles that were developed with launchers supplied by China.
The submarine North Korea plans to deploy the KN-11 on is not known.
North Korea obtained several decommissioned Soviet-era Golf II ballistic-missile submarines in the early 1990s.
Pyongyang may seek to copy or adapt the design of the Golf II for an indigenous missile submarine.
In another development, North Korea’s state-run news media reported Feb. 7 that the country’s military conducted a test firing of a precision-guided anti-ship cruise missile.
In addition, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un recently toured several military units and urged troops to be fully prepared for combat.
“Since November when the North began to stage winter drills, Kim has visited military units 10 times. While leading some aggressive exercises, he has encouraged the military to complete their readiness this year to fight,” South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo told legislators in Seoul, according to the semi-official Yonhap news agency Feb. 7.
Earlier this month South Korea announced the creation of an upgraded submarine command structure for its fleet of submarines. The command will operate South Korea’s 13 submarines that previously were subordinated to a surface fleet.
Some 20 U.S. Marines and 200 South Korean Marines conducted joint maritime infiltration exercises near the South’s border islands with North Korea on Feb. 10.
